Wither the Snowpack?

We're now into early March and the runoff prognosticators must be getting nervous.  We had a bad snow year last year and as things stand today, this year is looking marginal too.  Most drainage basins in the upper Colorado and in the Great Basin are running at less than 90% of average, and many are running at 75% of average.

Source: NRCS

In the central Wasatch, the current snowpack SWE is at or just above last year, as indicated by the Snowbird (Little Cottonwood), Mill-D (Big Cottonwood), and Thaynes Canyon (Park City) SNOTELs.

Source: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

The fact we are so close to last year, yet this year doesn't seem to be as bad of a ski season, illustrates that you can only glean so much from total accumulated snowfall during a season.  When it comes and how it comes really matters.  This year, we had more snow during the early season, whereas last year we suffered mightily until late January and then caught up with a couple of big storm cycles.

I don't have a crystal ball capable of anticipating whether or not we will get into the stormy period that is needed to help us catch up and obtain an average end-of-year snowpack.  The trough coming in later this week and weekend will help the southwest some, but what is sorely needed is a major pattern shift or a major storm cycle like the 2001 Hundred Inch Storm.  At Snowbird, for example, we need about six inches of SWE just to catch up to average snowpack for this time of year.  Making up ground like that is not impossible, but the odds are decreasing markedly as we move to later and later in the cool season.