As Close to "Normal" as It Gets

One of my pet peeves it the use of the word "normal" to describe climate averages.  Even The Weather Channel has raised concerns about this, yet it is commonly done by the National Weather Service and television broadcasters to describe the weather statistics on any given day.

It is perfectly "normal" in the midlatitudes for the weather to fluctuate.  The average weather for any given day does not equal normal.

Over the past 31 days, we have had a very good example of this.  In fact, during the past 31 days we have had about as close to "normal" weather as we can have in late sumer and early fall.  The temperatures at the Salt Lake City International Airport have fluctuated up and down with a gradual cooling trend as we moved through September and early October.  There have been days with above average temperatures, and days with below average temperatures, but the fluctuations have not been extreme (only one record was tied during this period).

Source: NWS

In the end, after all these ups and downs, the average temperature for the 31 day period is within 1ºF of the 30-year average.  You don't get much closer to average than that.  The airport also received 1.02 inches of precipitation, which is just a shade below the 30-year average for the period.  

So, this has been a remarkably average fall, with relatively "normal" weather.  The end result is that the Wasatch Mountains seem to look as they should for mid October.  There is a skiff of snow in the high country (see above) and the leaves are past peak at upper elevations and near peak at mid elevations.

This aspen grove (~7800 ft) is still a bit green and just approaching peak 

Near 8500 ft we're probably near or just past peak

This view up Butler Fork shows that the highlands between Big Cottonwood and Mill Creek Canyons are
now past peak, but leaves hang on in some areas.

There are some exceptions to this rule, which may be partly related to aspect and wind exposure.  One thing is for sure, this weekend is probably the last gasp of decent leaf peeping above 7000 feet.  By next weekend, most of the aspen leaves will be gone.

Finally, I have to comment that we are in the early stages of what is expected to be a very dramatic increase in global and regional temperatures.  While the past 31 days is within 1ºF of the average for the past 30 years, that probably puts it about 1.5ºF above average for the 20th century (I could run exact numbers, but hey, it's the weekend).  Thus, average for us is not average for our grandparents.